THE BREAKDOWN: It's time to settle the CanMNT goalkeeping debate once and for all 🙅♂️
Heading into next summer, a big decision looms for CanMNT head coach Jesse Marsch, who will have to choose the Canada's starting goalkeeper ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
While he could also theoretically continue to rotate his goalkeepers during the World Cup, it’s hard to imagine him doing that, as it’s important to have a rock that can keep things steady at the back in those sorts of tournaments.
Marsch knows that, too, given that he’s typically ridden with one starter in each of the three tournaments the CanMNT have played in under his tutelage, only offering minutes to the other goalkeeper in the last game of a group stage or a dead rubber match.
Now, the question is simple - who will that rock be for Canada at the next big tournament that awaits in the World Cup? Will it be Maxime Crépeau, who is looking to go from missing the 2022 tournament altogether with a fractured leg to leading Canada out in game #1 at BMO Field? Or will it be Dayne St. Clair, who has been slowly carving out a bigger and bigger role with this Canadian team over the past few years?
Of course, the answer could very well be neither of them, as a third name could step up and impress. Still, given the importance of experience and familiarity for goalkeepers, it feels like this is a two-horse race between Crépeau and St. Clair, and has been for a while now.
It won’t be an easy choice to make, as both are key personalities in the squad, have been quite good in MLS over the past few years, and are also good friends, meaning that Marsch has his work cut out for him in making a decision. 
Just look at their MLS numbers, which are hard to split. On paper, both have been regarded as two of the best in MLS over the past five years, with Crépeau winning a Supporters Shield and MLS Cup with LAFC in 2022, and St. Clair sitting as a two-time MLS All-Star.
When you look at their MLS statistics since the start of 2021, too, Crépeau has played 8,507 minutes, and St. Clair 9,765, with the discrepancy in minutes coming from the time Crépeau missed due to his leg injury.
In those minutes, FBRef notes that St. Clair allowed 1.35 goals per 90, and Crépeau 1.31 goals per 90, with St. Clair racking up a 69.5% save percentage on 465 shots on target (323 saves), and Crépeau racking up a 69.3% save percentage on 381 shots on target (261 saves). St. Clair does have a slight edge in clean sheets, keeping a clean sheet in 25.7% of his games, but Crépeau isn’t far behind at 21.1%.
Meanwhile, in terms of advanced metrics, St. Clair takes the slight edge in shot-stopping, as he’s saved 6.9 post-shot expected goals across that span, whereas Crépeau sits nearly even at 0.2, but Crépeau takes the slight edge in sweeping, averaging 1.13 actions outside of his penalty area compared to 0.86 for St. Clair. Otherwise, another big stat to look at is on crosses - St. Clair has stopped 2.2% of the 1721 crosses he’s faced (38), while Crépeau has stopped 7.2% of the 1349 crosses he’s faced (97).
Then, in terms of passing, both are quite solid at short and medium passes, with Crépeau completing 100% of his short passes and 98.5% of his medium passes, and St. Clair sitting with 99.7% rate on his short passes and 98.4% on his medium passes, although it’s worth noting that Crépeau has completed 49.6% of his long passes compared to 38.8% of St. Clair’s.
What those numbers show, however, is that while it's hard to distinguish them in terms of the basic counting stats, there are key stylistic differences between the two, with Crépeau playing more of a sweeper style that sees him jump off his line to clean up long balls and attack crosses, whereas St. Clair is more likely to sit back and focus on stopping shots, which he does at a strong rate. Then, on the ball, both are strong when building out of the back, with Crépeau carrying the edge in terms of finding teammates with his long balls.
Part of that can also come down to the teams they’ve been on, to be fair - interestingly, Crépeau has had to vary his style multiple times, having played at three different clubs in MLS since 2021 in the Vancouver Whitecaps, LAFC and Portland Timbers, with each club asking him to do different things. For example, at the Whitecaps, he sat back more, whereas at LAFC he was extremely aggressive, with his move to Portland offering more of a return to the style he played in Vancouver.
Meanwhile, St. Clair has been more consistent with his style, as Minnesota has been more likely to sit back and ask him to command his six-yard box instead of aggressively sweeping across his time at the club.
"It's over"
— Minnesota United FC (@MNUFC) November 3, 2024
- DSC pic.twitter.com/SpCyVk4cra
Of course, the stylistic differences are quite important when considering fit on the CanMNT, as this team plays quite aggressively under Marsch, playing a high defensive line that requires his goalkeepers to constantly come off their line to make decisive actions. Because of that, it’s given Crépeau a big edge from day one, when considering his familiarity with that sort of system from his stint at LAFC.
At the same time, it was always going to be interesting to see St. Clair in this sort of system, given that he’d never been able to play in it at club level. For a goalkeeper with his frame (he is listed at 6’3”), it seemed like a potential fit, especially when seeing the success Crépeau and his 5’11” frame had in that sort of system.
Because of that, Marsch has split the minutes between them, noting earlier this year that he feels they’ve got a “healthy competition” that is quite hard to split.
“Their job will be to support each other and push each other,” Marsch told TSN's Matthew Scianitti. “The best thing they can do is make sure they’re ready to perform because [the decision about who starts is] really close. They’re both very good.”
ANOTHER HUGE SAVE BY MAXIME CRÉPEAU FOR CANADA! #CA2024 pic.twitter.com/WYDGZLgy06
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 26, 2024
Now, in 21 games under Marsch, St. Clair has started 11 times, and Crépeau 10 times, with Crépeau getting the reins for Canada’s run to the 2024 Copa América semi-finals, and St. Clair leading his team to the semi-finals of the 2024-2025 Concacaf Nations League and quarter-finals of the 2025 Gold Cup.
Across those 21 games, St. Clair has allowed 11 goals in 11 matches, keeping five clean sheets, while Crépeau has allowed nine goals in 10 matches, keeping four clean sheets, showing that both have performed relatively similarly in a Canadian shirt under Marsch, at least in terms of the counting numbers.
Yet, how about when diving deeper into their Canada numbers via WyScout?
There, it’s worth noting that St. Clair only has 10 games' worth of data available, with no advanced numbers from his start in Canada’s friendly vs. Côte d’Ivoire in June, and the same goes for Crépeau, who has just nine numbers of data available with no advanced numbers from his start in Canada’s friendly vs. Panama last October. Granted, that doesn’t change much, given that both matches missing from this datapoint were friendlies, and that both goalkeepers made just one combined save across those 180 minutes - a St. Clair stop off a pretty harmless Nicolas Pépé free kick from distance vs. Côte d’Ivoire. 
Therefore, when looking at the available numbers, it’s interesting to note that Crépeau has faced about a shot more per game than average, as he dealt with 40 shots on target across those nine matches, saving 32 of them (giving him a save percentage of 80%), whereas St. Clair has only dealt with 33 across 10, saving 22 of them (giving him a save percentage of 66%). On the flip side, St. Clair’s shots have been of higher quality, as he’s faced 11.22 xG on target, whereas Crépeau has faced 10.7, with that being 1.02 and 1.07 xGOT per 90, respectively, meaning that Crépeau has dealt with slightly less xG per shot than St. Clair.
Despite that, Crépeau has underperformed his xGOT by 2.7 goals, while St. Clair has underperformed his by just 0.22, which is a bit of a trade-off compared to club level, as seen in the earlier numbers.
Maxime Crepeau comes up HUGE on Kylian Mbappe late and the #CanMNT 🇨🇦 pick up a 0-0 draw vs. France 🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/RJCMRKc3xQ
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 9, 2024
When diving deeper into game-by-game metrics, however, Crépeau has overperformed his xGOT in six of the nine games on record, with his best showing a 1.17 overperformance in a 0-0 draw vs. France in a friendly, while underperforming his xGOT just twice, with a 0.86 underperformance in a 2-0 loss to Argentina in the Copa América semi-finals his worst showing.
Meanwhile, St. Clair overperformed his xGOT six times in 10 games, with a 0.98 overperformance in a 6-0 win vs. Honduras at this summer’s Gold Cup his best showing, while underperforming his xGOT three times, with a 0.94 underperformance vs. Mexico in the Nations League semi-finals his worst showing.
Then, in terms of sweeping, it’s worth noting that the data is mixed. WyScout doesn’t track that data as specifically as FBRef does, as they track exits (events leaving line), but that data feels quite limited given that it says that Crépeau has six exits and St. Clair seven.
To that point, it’s worth noting that FBRef carries advanced Canada data in tournament play, but not in friendlies, so it does have stats from six of Crépeau’s appearances under Marsch (five at Copa América and one at the Gold Cup), and four of St. Clair’s appearances (three at the Gold Cup and one at Copa América). There, in that sample size, Crépeau has 17 actions outside of the box (3.4 per 90), while St. Clair has just three (0.75 per 90), although St. Clair stopped 7.1% of his 14 crosses compared to Crépeau stopping 6.1% of 49 crosses in those games.
Interestingly, in terms of passing, both were essentially equal in terms of short passes when returning to the WyScout data (Crépeau completed 99% of his 108 passes, and St. Clair 96% of his 115), but surprisingly, in terms of long balls, St. Clair completed 64% of his 50 attempts, compared to Crépeau’s 56% completion on 37 attempts, indicating that both have better targets to hit on long balls for Canada, something that’s clearly benefitted St. Clair, in particular.
Lastly, there are some other intangibles to consider, of course - for example, St. Clair has now participated in three penalty shootouts under Marsch (vs. Uruguay, Côte d’Ivoire and Guatemala), and Crépeau just one, yet Crépeau won his lone shootout with St. Clair unable to grab a victory in each match.
Of course, there are a lot of factors that helped determine the outcomes of those shootouts that neither had control over, but Crépeau did make two saves on six attempts in his shootout (and forced one miss), while St. Clair was unable to make a save on 17 attempts (forcing two misses). Interestingly, St. Clair has a better record at the club level on penalties, saving six out of 13 penalties at the MLS level (all competitions), while winning four out of five shootouts, making 5 saves (and forcing 5 misses) on 25 attempts.
Meanwhile, Crépeau has saved just two of 21 penalties at the club level (all competitions), losing the only shootout he’s been in (making no saves on four attempts), but that just shows another factor worth considering in this battle - how one rises to the pressure and moment in a Canadian shirt.
MAXIME CREPÉAU 🧤 ❌ pic.twitter.com/KD1Lqx1pyY
— Concacaf (@Concacaf) July 6, 2024
Mostly, that ‘pressure’ factor has been pretty evenly split, given that both reached a semi-final with Canada under Marsch (Crépeau at Copa América, St. Clair in Nations League), but the shootouts are a good example of where Crépeau might’ve carved out a slight edge in that regard.
Plus, to further expand on that point, it's worth noting that in Crépeau's tournament games on FBRef, he faced 22 shots and made 17 saves for a save percentage of 77.3% across those six games, while St. Clair faced 12 shots and made eight saves for a save percentage of 66.7% across his four tournament games, with Crépeau saving 1.4 goals above his xGOT and St. Clair 0.2 goals above his xGOT. Once again, that shows that in the small sample size of a tournament setting, Crépeau has shown that he'll raise his game, doing so in a Copa América environment that's theoretically more difficult to navigate.
When looking at the larger takeaways from all of those Canada numbers, however, Crépeau’s been the better shot-stopper and more aggressive sweeper, but St. Clair has been better at long balls and has faced more quality shots, with Crépeau holding a slight edge in terms of managing the occasion when considering the grandeur of Copa América.
ANOTHER HUGE SAVE BY MAXIME CRÉPEAU FOR CANADA! #CA2024 pic.twitter.com/WYDGZLgy06
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 26, 2024
Given what Marsch wants from his goalkeepers, which is aggressive play, that gives Crépeau the edge in terms of fit based on what the data has shown here, for both club and country. For example, the discrepancy between the shot quality both have faced for Canada could be explained by Crépeau’s sweeping, as he often cleans up dangerous actions before they happen, whereas St. Clair might be a bit more likely to sit back.
Plus, given that Crépeau has stepped up and put up stronger shot-stopping numbers with Canada compared to what he’s done at club level is also key, that further shows how he better fits in this Canadian system - with the numbers suggesting that he should be Canada's #1 going forward. 
Now that both goalkeepers have over 10 games of evidence each to dive into under their new coach, with each playing in a tournament and a similar body of top-level games (Crépeau has five games vs. top 30 opposition, including two clashes vs. #1 Argentina and one vs. #3 France; while St. Clair also has five games vs. top 30 opposition, including clashes vs. #6 Netherlands and #13 Uruguay), that should give plenty of ammunition for Marsch to come to his own conclusion, too.
Now, it’s worth noting that there are two other factors to consider.
Firstly, there’s what the next 12 months will look like. It’s hard to project, but with St. Clair having turned 28 in May and Crépeau 31 that same month, it means that both are very much in their prime.
At the same time, there still is likely some growth to come in St. Clair’s game, with goalkeepers improving into their 30s - the same goes for Crépeau, of course, but to a lesser extent, so when making a bet on potential, that gives some weight to St. Clair.
Of course, that growth will depend on what happens for both at the club level, however, which is the other thing to watch.
For example, Crépeau might need to consider his club future given that he doesn’t fit as well into the system he plays with head coach Phil Neville at the Timbers. That’s why he’s even lost his spot at times over the last two years, including for last year’s playoffs and a large chunk of this year, and has kept just four clean sheets in 33 appearances since joining the club at the beginning of 2024.
Given that his contract is up at the end of 2025 (although Portland has a club option), one has to wonder if he tries to find a club in MLS that both gives him more of a regular role and fits his abilities better.
Similarly, while St. Clair has been in a better club situation, keeping 17 clean sheets in 48 appearances, it’ll be worthwhile for him to ponder a move to a spot where the style would fit more with what he does for Canada - something he could easily do given that he’s also a free agent at the end of this year (with no club option in his case, either).
DAYNE ST. CLAIR PREVENTS NETHERLANDS’ FIRST GOAL 👏🧤
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 6, 2024
Watch #CanMNT LIVE on OneSoccer 🔴 pic.twitter.com/hL42QwT5L6
Naturally, it’s worth pointing out that both leaving their clubs in December might be too late for them to win this race, with some huge friendlies coming up this fall (Canada’s already scheduled matches vs. #45 Romania, #29 Wales, #26 Australia and #14 Colombia in September and October, with two games still to fill in November), which could push Marsch to choose a starter by the end of this year with the eye on giving them some runway ahead of next summer.
Assuming that’s the case, it’ll put pressure on both goalkeepers to step up and make the most of those last three auditions they’ll probably get apiece (given that they’ve already split the net in all friendlies Canada have played under Marsch, with St. Clair featuring in three and Crépeau in four), helping further guide a decision.
Then, in Crépeau’s case, one can most definitely wonder if he will explore a summer move, given that Portland already has Canadian James Pantemis on standby, which could free an earlier exit - of course, the same can be said for St. Clair and a potential departure, but he seems unlikely to move before the end of the year, given his longevity and stature at Minnesota (and lack of ready replacement).
No doubt, however, that this battle isn’t going to be over anytime soon, with Marsch wanting to keep competition high between both, so although Crépeau has a decisive edge in terms of all the metrics explored above, look for this to keep brewing in the months to come.
