THE BREAKDOWN: How do the CanMNT use their substitutes under Jesse Marsch?
In recent years, the CanMNT’s depth has rapidly improved, as the team is arguably deeper than ever heading into next summer’s World Cup.
That’s going to lead to some big selection headaches for head coach Jesse Marsch, who will have a tough time picking his squad for next year, no matter if it’s 23 or 26 players.
Of course, just picking the squad is half the battle he faces. From there, he’ll have to figure out what his starting XI will look like, as well as how he wants to use the rest of his team throughout the tournament.
To that last point, that might be his toughest task - figuring out how to get the most out of the 23 or 26 players he brings to that World Cup. While he might not use everyone during the tournament (immediately, one can imagine one or two goalkeepers might not expect to play), he’d ideally expect to use most of his outfield players, if not all of them.
At the same time, with just 10 outfield players starting each match, and a further five able to come in, it can be a balancing act to figure out what the best starting group is, as well as the best substitutes. 
In particular, the last point is rapidly becoming an important part of modern soccer, making it ultra-important for Marsch to find a good balance there. With the change in recent years to allow teams to use five substitutes instead of three, it has completely altered the ways coaches can impact matches.
Given that you can essentially swap half of your team out during a match, it can be a true game-changer for those who can use it properly, but that’s easier said than done, as it can also be extremely disruptive to shake up a team at the wrong moments.
Often, the tough balancing act for a coach is knowing when to let the team play its game and when to make adjustments to change things up, with the best coaches finding a line that sits somewhere between the two.
For the most part, a lot of research suggests that teams are better off using their substitutes early and often, which makes sense. Ultimately, at the highest level, where there isn’t a large talent discrepancy between players on the bench and starters, it can be beneficial to bring on fresh legs, especially as the game goes on, as that usually doesn’t come with a big drop-off in talent attached to it.
That logic doesn’t account for game state, of course, as a team leading or trailing will dissect matches differently, but there’s still value in bringing on fresh legs in most scenarios.
Especially for a team like the CanMNT, who plays an aggressive style that is quite physically demanding for players, that almost seems to be doubly true, as sometimes bringing in fresh legs can be about maintaining physical output instead of anything tactical.
Speaking of the CanMNT, however, that leads to an important question to dive into - how have they used their substitutes under Jesse Marsch? 
Why ask that question now, one might ask? With Canada’s early elimination in the quarter-finals of the Gold Cup, where they fell to Guatemala on penalties, many had questions about Marsch’s substitutions during that game. Given that he made just four substitutions despite his team picking up a first-half red card, and then made no tweaks to his lineup ahead of the penalty shootout, some wondered if he could’ve been more aggressive with his changes on the day.
For example, could Canada have benefited from a substitution at half time vs. Guatemala, given that the red card they picked up happened just before the break? Most might’ve suggested yes, as their decision to stick with a 4-2-3 formation instead of going to a more conservative set-up led to them running out of energy earlier than hoped, as they could’ve sat back in more of a 4-4-1 and bunkered.
GOAL 🇬🇹
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 29, 2025
Guatemala equalize 1-1 vs. #CanMNT as Rubio Rubin beats Derek Cornelius to the header and buries it past DSC 🎯
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Then, further to that point, could he have perhaps brought in a specialized penalty taker off the bench later in the match, helping avoid the scenario where a youngster like Luc De Fougerolles had to take a penalty, especially when someone on the bench like Ismaël Koné had proven to be a decent spot kick taker? One can only help but wonder that when seeing De Fougerolles slam a decisive penalty off the bar, as he never looked confident when stepping up to take it.
When seeing all of that, however, the question then becomes this: was that a one-off from Marsch, or is this part of a bigger pattern in terms of his substitutions, one that might’ve gone unnoticed in games where Canada had better results?
Off the back of that, here’s a deeper look at how Marsch has used his substitutes since his arrival. Given that he now has 21 games worth of sample size under his belt, in which he’s picked up a record of 10W-5D-6L, that should provide plenty of data to dive into. 
Here's a look at the timing of the substiutions made in each game under Jesse Marsch, and the total substiutions they've made. Games highlighted in green are competitive matches, and games highlighted in yellow are friendlies
Firstly, when looking at that data, it’s worth noting that Marsch’s use of just four changes was indeed a one-off. The last time he’d used fewer than his full allotment of five substitutes had come against Venezuela in last year’s Copa América quarter-finals, as he’d otherwise used all five of his substitutes in 14 consecutive games ahead of the Guatemala loss.
In fact, when looking at his tenure, he’s used five substitutions in 17 out of 21 games - a loss to Argentina in the 2024 Copa América opener, a draw vs. Chile in their third group stage game of the Copa América, and then those aforementioned games against Venezuela and Guatemala are the lone outliers.
Of course, not all games are created equal - that list of 21 games also includes friendlies, where teams are allowed to make six substitutions, which coaches will almost always use the full allotment of as they usually experiment with their squads in those matches.
Naturally, that stands out when you split the data into competitive matches and friendlies - in the seven friendlies Marsch has overseen with the CanMNT, he’s used all six of his substitutions each time (and even used seven on a special occasion after an injury). Plus, as one would expect, he’s used them pretty aggressively - his first sub has typically come around the 50th minute, the second around the 66th minute, and the third around the 68th minute.
After that, sub four has come around the 73rd minute, sub five around the 79th minute and sub six around the 85th minute, as he’s spread the rest of his changes throughout the second half. Again, that’s not surprising - typically, in a friendly, you want to see as much of your bench as possible, meaning that you account less for game state and other factors. 
Here's a look at the data from Canada's substiutions in friendlies
Interestingly, Canada hasn’t gotten a goal from any of those 43 substitutes in any of those seven friendlies, which stands out. Granted, they’ve had a pretty mixed record in friendlies, winning three, drawing three and losing one (scoring eight goals and conceding eight), but that’s still curious to see, as one would expect those substitutes to want to come onto the field and score goals, especially given the logjam Canada has up front, as they tend to bring a lot of attacking players off the bench in those friendly matches.
Yet, when diving into their competitive slate of matches, what are some of the other trends that stand out with their substitutions?
Once again, Marsch has typically tended to use his full allotment of substitutions, using all five in 10 out of 14 competitive matches (even using six in one of those 10 matches as they used a concussion sub). Plus, to that point, he’s never used fewer than four, showing that he’ll typically always throw at least four fresh players into the game, usually using all five substitutes when possible. 
And here's a look at the data from Canada's substiutions in competitive matches
In terms of the timing of those moves, he’s been decently aggressive with his first change, which has come around the 55th minute on average, although it’s worth noting that data is skewed by their third-place match against the US from the Nations League this year, where Alphonso Davies left in the 12th minute. When removing that match, Marsch’s first sub has typically come around the 59th minute, which is pretty standard.
Otherwise, the second sub has typically come in the 65th minute, the third sub in the 68th minute, the fourth sub in the 77th minute, and the fifth sub in the 81st minute, as he’s been less aggressive with his changes in competitive games than in friendlies, which isn’t surprising to see.
When it comes to his substitutions in competitive matches, though, he’s been able to draw a bit more of an impact out of them, as he’s had three goals from substitutes - Jonathan David’s marker vs. Uruguay in the Copa América third-place match, Junior Hoilett’s winner vs. Suriname in leg one of their Nations League quarter-final, and Promise David’s goal vs. Honduras in their 2025 Gold Cup opener. Across a sample size of 14 games, that’s not bad, but not great, although saying that ignores the context of a lot of those matches.
GOAL 🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) November 16, 2024
JUNIOR HOILETT, LET'S GO 😎#CanMNT go up 1-0 over Suriname in Leg 1 of this Concacaf Nations League quarter-finals series 💥
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Speaking of context, however, that’s one thing worth diving into from that data. From there, certain questions can be asked, such as if Canada are managing games properly, be it when they’re leading or trailing, and who they’re bringing into games.
To begin, when they’re leading, they’ve actually done a pretty good job of securing results - their loss to Guatemala was the first time they lost a game in which they scored first, and technically, it wasn’t an outright defeat when considering they fell on penalties. Yet, that’s why they’ve won 10 out of 12 games in which they’ve scored first under Marsch, with nine of them being regulation wins and the other coming on penalties, with that PK shootout loss to Guatemala and a 1-1 draw to Curaçao this Gold Cup the only time they’ve failed to win (meaning they’re yet to lose in regulation time when finding the net first).
In those games where they’ve scored first, they’ve typically made their first change in the 51st minute, although that number pushes closer to the 58th minute when considering that two of their games in which they scored first saw them make first-half substitutions due to injuries.
Here's how Canada makes substitutions in games where they take the lead.
Meanwhile, in the games where they’ve conceded first (of which they’ve lost each game, four of them outright and one other in a penalty shootout), they’ve been slightly more aggressive, making that first change in the 56th minute. That’s to be expected, as they’ve always conceded that first goal before the 50th minute, which has usually forced them into earlier changes.
Interestingly, when comparing games where Canada scores first versus ones where they don’t, they otherwise make their second, third and fourth substitutions around the same time, with the big difference coming with their fifth sub - they tend to make it around the 82nd minute in games where they scored first, and around the 75th minute in games where they concede first, meaning they’re more likely to throw in an emergency attacker early when trailing, but are more calculated with making their last change in games where they took the lead.
And here's how Canada makes substitutions in games where they concede first
Otherwise, when looking at the players he’s brought into games, Marsch has subbed in 31 strikers, 31 wingers, 22 midfielders, 14 full backs and 12 centre backs, as he’s naturally leaned more towards attacking subs. In particular, he loves to bring in attackers in competitive matches, as he’s subbed in 20 strikers and 21 wingers across those games, but he’s also loved to use his midfielders, inserting 14 of them into competitive games - he’s meanwhile inserted just five full backs and seven centre backs in such matches.
To put that in perspective, out of the 67 subs he’s made in competitive matches, 29% have been strikers, 31% have been wingers, 20% have been midfielders, 7% have been full backs and 10% have been centre backs. By comparison, in friendlies, 25% of his subs have been strikers, 23% have been wingers, 18% have been midfielders, 20% have been full backs and 11% have been centre backs, as he’s used a more even split of players.
Again, that’s nothing out of the ordinary, as players higher up the pitch are more likely to be subbed off given the running they do, although the big surprise has been how reluctant they’ve been to sub in full backs in competitive matches. Plus, given the number of attackers they sub into games, it does make it more surprising that they’ve got just three goals from substitutes, as they do tend to throw in a lot of forwards and wingers to attack tired legs, but that hasn’t led to as much output as hoped. 
Here's a look at Marsch's preferred substitutes, with striker Tani Oluwaseyi, midfielder Jonathan Osorio, striker Cyle Larin, winger Jacob Shaffelburg and winger Tajon Buchanan leading the way.
Lastly, another thing worth diving into is the timing at which Canada scores and concedes goals, which could help explain if they need to be making more aggressive substitutions. If Canada has a relatively even split of goals scored and conceded, that won’t stand out, but if they’re struggling to score and leaking goals late, it indicates that they might be better off inserting fresh legs into games earlier, especially given their demanding style.
When looking at that breakdown, in terms of goals scored, they’ve had a pretty even split - of the 28 goals they’ve scored under Marsch, 14 have come in the first half, and 14 in the second half. When splitting the game into six 15-minute periods, their best period is between minutes 15 and 30, where they’ve scored eight goals, but they’ve scored three goals in the first 15 minutes, five goals between minutes 30 and 45, four goals between minutes 60 and 75, and five goals after the 75th minute. No red flags there, as they’ve got a pretty even distribution of goals scored across the match, even if not a lot of them are coming from substitutes.
Where some red flags appear, however, is when looking at the goals they’ve conceded. There, among the 20 they’ve conceded, 16 have come in the second half, with six coming between the 60th and 75th minute of matches, and another six coming after the 75th minute, meaning that they’ve conceded 12 of their 20 goals in the last 30 minutes of matches (in numbers, that’s 60% of the goals they’ve conceded coming in the last 33% of the match).
In fact, when looking at the numbers, they’ve mostly conceded more goals as the game goes on - they’ve conceded twice in the first 15 minutes of matches, once between minutes 15 and 30, once between 30 and 45, before conceding four times between minutes 45 and 60, and then the six times apiece between 60-75 and 75-90.
That’s worrying, as it shows that Canada tends to get sloppier defensively as games go on. They’ve been very good defensively, especially as of late - they’ve conceded just nine goals in their last 13 games, but seven of those goals have come after the 60th minute. 
Here's the distribution of the goals Canada has scored and conceded within games, split into 15 minute chunks
What that shows, however, is that the big takeaway from this analysis is that Canada will want to find a way to tighten up at the back later in matches. For what it’s worth, a lot of that noise is coming from friendlies, as they’ve conceded six goals after the 60th minute in their seven friendlies, compared to six in 14 competitive matches, but that latter figure is still a bit of a worry given that it represents half of the 12 goals they’ve conceded in those competitive matches.
Offensively, they’ll want to get more goals out of their substitutes, no doubt, as they look to improve on those three goals scored from players off the bench, but they’re at least scoring later in matches (although five of the nine goals they’ve scored after the 60th minute have come in games where they already led, meaning that they were insurance markers instead of decisive goals).
Ideally, they start getting more goals out of substitutes going forward, especially in tighter games, with their biggest focus being on getting their substitutes to help them decide tighter games (given that Canada has a record of 7W-0D-1L when they score two or more goals, meaning that it’s not a bad thing to have their late goals be insurance markers). 
Defensively, however, they’ll want to reduce the number of goals they concede after the 60th minute, which might affect the substitutes they make, at least in terms of the personnel they bring in and the timing of those moves. In particular, Canada might be pushed to be more pragmatic in certain moments, even if that’s not been their style under Marsch, helping reduce the number of late goals, especially in games where they take the lead.
To that point, in the 12 games where they’ve taken the lead, they’ve conceded eight goals, period - seven of those have come after the 60th minute, showing that managing games is a concern, as it’s not as if they’re conceding most of these late goals in games where they’re chasing. Building off that, the other five goals they conceded after the 60th minute all came in matches where they were already trailing, meaning that they’re actually yet to concede a goal after the 60th minute in a game that was tied at that stage, as they were always either leading or trailing when conceding those late goals.
Yet, that game management is something that they’ll look to improve over the next few years, both in terms of how they manage leads and chase matches, as they continue to prepare for the World Cup. With the depth they have in their squad, substitutions could play a huge role next summer, if used right, but that’s the hard part to do.
HIGHLIGHTS 🎥
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 22, 2025
Recap #CanMNT 🇨🇦 vs. Curacao 🇨🇼 in 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup group stage action + recap by @AlexGangueRuzic ✍️
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For the most part, they’ve been pretty eager to use their substitutes under Marsch, which is half of the battle, but figuring out how to use them as effectively as possible will be the next challenge, especially in terms of figuring out which players can come in and break open a game offensively, and who can shut down the game defensively.
Once again, Canada’s opening game plan remains quite strong, hence their success in games where they take the lead or reach the 60th minute still in a neutral game state, but where they’ll want to grow is how they manage games from the 60th minute onwards, and that can be done in several ways. Many will focus on having a ‘plan B’ given Marsch’s comments at the Gold Cup, which is one way forward, but another is by using substitutions to freshen things up, and Marsch will look to refine how he uses them going forward.
Heading into the World Cup, where a strong slew of opponents awaits, it’ll be important to manage key moments in matches, especially late on, where timely goals and defensive contributions can go a long way. Those don’t have to come from substitutes, of course, but with five of them at a coach’s disposal, it can only help when used correctly.
