THE BREAKDOWN: Diving into the numbers behind the CanMNT's 2025 results
The sprint towards the 2026 World Cup continues this week for the CanMNT, as they’ll learn their group stage opponents at the official tournament draw in Washington on Friday.
Safe to say that promises to be a massive event for this team, as they’ll get a much better idea of what their World Cup journey could look like next summer.
All of a sudden, it can be a bit easier to dream of a run to the knockout stages with a favourable draw - conversely, being put in the group of death might put a bit of a damper on the occasion. Either way, it’ll be a bit easier to dream or fret about potential scenarios with the tournament all drawn out. 
Given the growth of this Canadian team, it’s hard to think they’ll find themselves frustrated by many draw scenarios, however, as they’ll ultimately welcome the chance to play some of the best teams in the world next summer. Instead, their focus will be on making the most of this opportunity that lies ahead of them, as they chase their first World Cup points, victory, and, if all goes well, run into the knockout stage.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at how this Canadian team has evolved over the past two years, as they recently wrapped up their 2025 schedule with a pair of games against Ecuador and Venezuela last month.
Now, with no more games on the horizon until 2026, in what will be the long-awaited start of a World Cup year, this is a good time to reflect on how this Canadian team fared in 2025. 
At large, it’s been a big year of growth for this team, no doubt. Heading into 2026, this team has a clear identity, is armed with their deepest player pool ever, and they’re more than capable of holding their own against top sides.
Because of that, it feels like they have what it takes to make some noise next summer, as they won’t be the timid unit that struggled to impose themselves at the 2022 World Cup, failing to pick up a point at that tournament.
At the same time, it’s not as if all went exactly to plan for this Canadian team this year, either. Heading into 2025, they were hoping to win one of the Concacaf Nations League or Gold Cup trophies, but instead, they didn’t even make the final of either tournament, which were both won by Mexico.
In particular, their Gold Cup campaign ended with quite a thud, as despite bringing a strong team to that tournament, they exited at the quarter-final stage after losing to Guatemala on penalties.
For a team that was looking to firmly establish themselves as the top team in Concacaf heading into next summer, it was a big hit to their credentials, as they’ve still got an unconvincing record in bigger matches despite their growth over the last decade.
On the flipside, they also had some pretty memorable results in some of their other games, though. Beating the US in the Nations League third-place game was well-received, while friendly wins vs. Ukraine, Wales, Romania and Venezuela can’t be ignored. Plus, beating Honduras 6-0 in their Gold Cup opener will have felt cathartic for a certain generation of Canadian fans.
At the end of the #CanMNT's 2025 season, what grade would you give Jesse Marsch?
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) November 21, 2025
Watch the full discussion on YouTube 📺 pic.twitter.com/U95zhrjDOt
Along with 0-0 draws vs. strong CONMEBOL and CAF opposition in Côte d’Ivoire, Colombia and Ecuador, there were a lot of positives to take out of those games, in which Canada showed the resolve they’ll need to channel next summer if they’re to achieve some of their goals.
Yet, that’s the story of this Canadian team heading into 2026 - since Jesse Marsch has taken over, they’ve lost just seven out of 27 matches (25.9%), sitting with a record of 13W-7D-7L (48.1% win rate). When you consider that two of those defeats came in penalty shootouts, with one coming in the third-place match at the 2024 Copa América, and the other being against Guatemala in this year’s Gold Cup quarter-finals, that record looks even stronger - this is a hard team to beat. 
Here are the statistics from the CanMNT's games in 2024 and 2025 under Jesse Marsch (OPTA)
Still, one big worry for this team, despite that positive record, is that while they don’t often lose games, they’re not as decisive as they’d like to be in matches. While they can get away with that at the World Cup, ideally, they’d like to turn more of their draws into wins, which could help them avoid shootouts, which they’ve had a mixed record in under Marsch.
Speaking of Marsch, with this being the end of his second year in charge of this team, however, it’s worth diving into how this team has evolved and progressed statistically in 2025. While the year might’ve felt like a bit of a letdown with the lack of trophies after an exciting 2024 that featured a surprise run at the Copa América, it’s worth noting that his record was almost identical in both years.
After going 6W-3D-4L under Marsch in 2024, Canada was 7W-4D-3L in 2025, suggesting that they were slightly better, if anything. Part of that was due to the level of opposition they played, yes, as they played teams with an average of #46 in the FIFA Rankings in 2025, compared to #38 in 2024, but it’s worth noting that the average level of teams they played in 2025 was juiced by them playing #1 ranked Argentina twice and #2 ranked France once.
They didn’t play any teams as good as that in 2025, with the best side they played being #13-ranked Ecuador, but they still played six teams in the top 25, and four others that were between #25 and #50 - those are the sort of teams they’ll likely face next summer, especially as a pot one team. 
Here are the CanMNT's goals for and goals against numbers from 2024 to 2025, highlighting good growth (OPTA)
Elsewhere, to further dive into the numbers, the big thing that stands out when looking at 2024 and 2025 is that this side took a big leap forward defensively from year to year, as they conceded just 0.57 goals per game this year after conceding 1.00 goals per game last year, which is quite impressive given that the 2024 figures were already quite good.
Yet, a big reason for that is due to big improvements in the number of touches in the box, shots, big chances and xG they conceded per game, as they cut down the touches in the box they conceded from 20.38 to 13.71, shots from 10.54 to 7.43, big chances against from 2.31 to 1.79 and xG from 1.32 to 0.88. 
Here's a look at the CanMNT's defensive metrics from 2024 to 2025 - as seen above, they made big improvements across the board (OPTA)
Through that, you can see how they were able to keep eight clean sheets in 14 games in 2025, doing well to build on the six clean sheets they had under Marsch in 2024, as they did well to limit chances for their opponents this year.
Heading into next summer, that’ll be a big calling card for them, as defensively solid teams always have a chance of surprising in tournaments, especially if they can find some timely goals at the other end.
Speaking of goals, however, it remains to be seen whether or not this team can find those goals next summer, as they also had a bit of a tough end to the year offensively, scoring just twice in their final four games.
Plus, when looking at the numbers, they didn’t make many of the same improvements offensively as they did defensively, either. They had a big jump in goals per game, as they went from 0.92 to 1.57, but they did score 10 of the 22 goals they had in 2025 in two games, as they put four past Ukraine in a June friendly before putting six past Honduras later that month in Gold Cup action, which spiked the stats.
When looking at their overall numbers, though, their shots, touches in the box, big chances and xG for numbers all remained pretty much the same from year to year, and some even regressed. As a result, they went from 10.63 shots in 2024 to 10.43 shots in 2025, from 24.08 touches in the box to 21.29, from 2.62 big chances to 2.64, and from 1.38 xG generated to 1.41. 
Here's a look at the CanMNT's offensive metrics from 2024 to 2025 - as seen here, they mostly stayed the same, and even regressed in terms of touches in the box (OPTA)
For a team that wasn’t the most dangerous offensively in 2024 already, scoring just 12 times in 13 games under Marsch, that’s a worry, as you would’ve liked to see some more improvements in those numbers. Yes, they were quite unlucky in 2024, as they underperformed their xG quite significantly, but they ended up overperforming that xG in 2025 and still struggled, due to the fact that a lot of their offensive metrics stayed the same.
In particular, what stands out is that this team was quite boom or bust in 2025 - they had two of their highest shot volume games in 2025, but they also had two of their worst, showing that they weren’t consistent enough with their approach from game to game. 
Here's a look at the CanMNT's game by game xG (in red) and goals for (in blue) metrics - as seen above, they were very boom or bust. They also started the year strongly, before finishing in a slump (OPTA)
What that all shows, though, is what this team will need to work on ahead of the start of the World Cup.
As it stands, they have a very clear identity when it comes to how they press teams and defend, and that’s turned them into a very strong defensive team, one that can still defend even when missing key regulars. Considering some of the injuries they dealt at the back this year, that’s very important to note, as they took those big strides defensively despite missing key pieces such as Alphonso Davies, Moïse Bombito, Alistair Johnston and Derek Cornelius for stretches.
Heading into next summer, they’ll feel capable of going up against any team and holding their own at the back, which was certainly not the case at the last World Cup, where they were eliminated off the back of some poor defensive performances.
On the flipside, they’ll need to be more dangerous offensively going forward, especially in terms of volume.
They have decent shot quality - they averaged 0.135 xG per shot in 2025 after averaging 0.129 xG per shot in 2025, but a lack of volume has held them back. For context, if they were to maintain the same xG per shot, while taking 15 shots per game (just under five more shots per game than their current average), they’d average just over 2.00 xG per game, which would be very elite. Even a small jump up to 13 shots per game pushes Canada to 1.75 xG per game, which would also be very good. 
Here's a look at the CanMNT's game by game metrics for their shots, big chances and touches in the box. As seen here, they were also not as consistent in these statistics as hoped (OPTA)
To do that, however, they’ll need to start taking more touches in the box, turning those touches into shots, and then hopefully, goals. For a team that hasn’t been ruthless enough with taking their chances, that volume approach will be crucial.
Now, of course, the question is whether or not they can do that while keeping their defensive game solid, which won’t be easy to do.
At the same time, they’ve got the personnel to be much more dangerous in the attack, so it’s not an impossible task, either, especially when considering that they’ve remained solid offensively even despite their defensive improvements. Perhaps, there’s a world where they can take a big leap offensively, while not making many sacrifices defensively - they were ultimately able to take a big leap defensively without sacrificing much up front, after all.
Had they not had that four-goal game against Ukraine or the six-goal game against Ukraine, there’d be doubts about their ability to be more dangerous offensively, so look for them to channel what worked in those matches, more specifically.
Overall, though, this team remains in a good place - now, the challenge over the next six months will be to get healthy, figure out some key lineup decisions, and make the necessary adjustments that will make this team more dangerous offensively while keeping them solid defensively.
If they do that, the recipe is there for them to have a strong World Cup - especially if they can have a favourable World Cup draw this Friday.
All numbers via OPTA. 2024 data only includes games under Jesse Marsch (excludes March 2024 Copa América qualifier vs. Trinidad & Tobago).
