PLATT: CanMNT 🇨🇦, Group B underdogs? Here are 495 possible outcomes if Canada finish 1st

Canada’s emphatic 6-0 win over Qatar has re-ignited hopes of remaining in Vancouver for the knockout stage by winning Group B.

Jesse Marsch’s side can now secure first place by avoiding defeat against Switzerland. Few would argue against the value of retaining home advantage at BC Place, but what impact would finishing in top spot have on the quality of Canada’s opponent?

The permutations are simpler if Canada finishes second, so let’s start there. In that event, they will face the runners-up of Group A in Los Angeles on June 28. That looks likely to be South Korea, who cannot win their group but can guarantee second place with a draw against South Africa in their final game.

If they lose, they will be at risk of being overtaken by Czechia, who face a Mexico side that has already wrapped up first place and has nothing to play for. But you would expect Korea to get the job done.

It’s more complex if Canada wins its group, which will mean facing a yet-to-be-determined third-place team in Vancouver on July 2.

There are 495 possible combinations of third-place teams advancing and FIFA has mapped out where each one would be placed in all of those possible outcomes. These are the potential opponents for the winner of Canada’s group:

We can see that the third-place team from Group G or J would be Canada’s opponent in 450 out of those 495 combinations (91%).

Group G is wide open after two draws in the opening round of games. But most would expect Belgium to claim a top-two spot, leaving Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand as probable third-place options.

New Zealand would be a more favourable opponent than South Korea and most would probably take Iran, too. The problem is that those two sides have already faced each other and drew, leaving both with an uphill struggle to reach the points threshold required to qualify and making Group G the least likely group to put a third-place team in the knockout stage, per this analysis by The Athletic. In fact, it is more likely to happen if Iran or New Zealand upsets Belgium or Egypt and one of those teams falls into third.

Group J is likely to present a more challenging opponent. If we assume Argentina will win the group and Jordan will finish bottom, that will leave Austria and Algeria to fight it out for second and third. They face each other in their final group match.

There is less of a clear distinction between those two sides and South Korea. Entering the World Cup, Austria were ranked 24th by FIFA, South Korea were 25th, and Algeria were 28th.

There is another complication here, though. The Athletic’s analysis has Group J as the second-least likely group to produce a third-place team after Group G. As long as Algeria beat Jordan, three teams will have at least three points, but that does not guarantee qualification.

In the event — and only in the event — that neither Group G nor Group J qualifies three teams for the knockout round, the other options come into play. They are all unpleasant: Germany/Ecuador (if you expect Ivory Coast to reach six points by beating Curacao), Norway/Senegal (ditto France against Iraq), and Sweden/Japan/Netherlands. This is a daunting prospect to keep an eye on.

None of this should dampen anyone’s enthusiasm about winning the group: facing the third-place team from Group G or J with home advantage is still likely to be the best-case scenario. But while failing to secure a longer stay in Vancouver would feel like a missed opportunity, it would not necessarily be the end of the road for Canada at the World Cup.