Diving into the CanMNT's fierce striker race ahead of the 2026 World Cup
While the CanMNT struggled to score goals to end 2025, finding the net just three times in their last five games, the same can’t be said for their strikers, as some of them have been in excellent form at club level to close out the calendar year.
In Italy, Jonathan David has started to breach the net again for Juventus after a tough integration period at his new club, while in Spain, Tani Oluwaseyi has done well to find his feet at Villarreal CF after his big summer transfer of his own.
Otherwise, in Belgium, Promise David can’t stop scoring for Union St-Gilloise, Daniel Jebbison is finding form with Championship side Preston North End in England, and Theo Bair is thriving with Lausanne-Sport in Switzerland.
Since the start of the 2024-2025 season, no one has more Jupiler Pro League goals than Promise David (26)
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) December 15, 2025
After finishing #3 in the 24-25 JPL Golden Boot race, he’s tied for #1 in 25-26 after scoring his 7th league goal this weekend
Can’t stop scoring!pic.twitter.com/gZisZHwSbz
Safe to say, their performances have to be good news for Jesse Marsch, who is likely continuing to mull over what the best solution is for this Canadian team to score more goals going forward.
The state of the striker rice:
As it stands, with Marsch's preference to play with the 4-2-2-2 formation, one he’s used almost exclusively since his arrival, he’ll need to figure out which two strikers he’ll start together for Canada’s 2026 World Cup opener at BMO Field on June 12th, which will likely be one of those aforementioned names, with Cyle Larin the only other name seemingly in contention.
Based on Marsch’s time in charge, we’ve got an excellent idea of who one of those names will be, at least - Jonathan David. Even though he’s had a trying start to life in Italy, his sparkling record for Canada speaks for itself, as he’s the CanMNT’s all-time top scorer and has amassed 11 goals and four assists since Marsch took over.
Along with his excellent play at Lille OSC over the last few years, he’s more than earned the benefit of the doubt that his struggles at Juventus are but a blip, and that he’s found a bit of form lately seems to indicate that - most would back him to snap his rare five-game scoring drought for Canada quite early in 2026. He is the most important player to this team’s attack, after all.
Who will pair alongside J. David, however, remains a much harder question to answer - and you can’t fully discount the possibility of Marsch switching to a 4-2-3-1 formation to insert a third midfielder underneath J. David, something that many would be happy to see if it can further make him more dangerous.
Jonathan David has now scored multiple #UCL goals in 3 different campaigns
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) December 11, 2025
No #CanMNT player has more than 1 such season (Tomasz Radzinski, Alphonso Davies, Stephen Eustáquio, Promise David)
JD has 9 goals in his last 16 UCL games - and 12 total 👀🔥pic.twitter.com/kYYmakCNVZ
At the moment, Tani Oluwaseyi is the favourite among the other strikers, as he earned a big chunk of those valuable minutes alongside J. David in 2025, starting eight of Canada’s last 10 games to end the year.
At the same time, Promise David’s excellent goalscoring form at the club level continues to turn heads, especially when considering that he's outscored Oluwaseyi for Canada in a fraction of the minutes. And it seems like Jebbison and Bair are at least throwing their name into the mix with what they’re doing with their clubs, too, where they have five and 10 goals apiece across all competitions, which isn’t far off P. David’s return of 12 across all competitions.
Plus, you can’t fully rule out Larin, who remains the CanMNT’s second all-time leading scorer, even if he’s struggled for Canada lately, scoring just twice in the last 27 games, as Marsch continues to show great admiration for his leadership and work off the ball.
Speaking of Larin, however, his name does spark an interesting discussion that is brewing for this Canadian team - who are the strikers Marsch will select for next summer’s World Cup squad, and is Larin’s spot in that squad as secure as previously thought?
Even if he faces long odds to regain the starting role he once held, it always felt like his spot in this squad was safe, despite his goalscoring struggles for Canada and at the club level. Ultimately, most of the other options shortlisted to pip him weren’t around the team yet, or yet to show regular glimpses of the level they’d hoped to one day hit, making it hard to place them ahead of Larin in any depth chart.
Over the last 18 months, however, that’s slowly changed, and that’s why that question is starting to be asked as Marsch continues to ponder his squad selection. 
Diving into the club form of the CanMNT strikers:
Based on club form, though, Larin looks to be sixth in the race when looking at the play of J. David, P. David, Oluwaseyi, Jebbison and Bair, who all have regular roles for their clubs this season, and have generated more goal contributions than Larin in those minutes.
Just look at this chart, which compares all of their offensive stats with their clubs from this year, showing that Larin hasn’t been able to match them with his play for Feyenoord, who he joined on loan from RCD Mallorca this summer. 
All stats via WyScout, all competitions. Minutes included stoppage time minutes accrued
In his defence, he has had a significant lack of minutes in the Netherlands, as his per 90 numbers are quite good, but others will be quick to point out that the fact he hasn’t been able to turn those numbers into more appearances is a cause for concern.
Especially when looking at the stats of the two frontrunners to play alongside J. David, Oluwaseyi and P. David, who are doing quite well at their clubs.
For example, Oluwaseyi, who is playing at a top-five club in a top-five league at Villarreal, has carved out a regular rotation role despite arriving at the club this summer, and a big reason for that is his ability to take touches in dangerous areas, using that to help him generate chances at a high level. Even though he’s not finishing them as regularly as hoped quite yet, generating consistent opportunities is always the hardest thing for a striker to do, and Oluwaseyi’s finishing should only improve as he adapts to playing in a top-five league and in the UEFA Champions League, anyway.
TANI OLUWASEYI SCORES HIS FIRST-EVER CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GOAL 🤩
— DAZN Canada (@DAZN_CA) December 10, 2025
The Canadian levelled things up for Villarreal against FC København with a clinical strike from inside the 18-yard box 🇨🇦👏#UCL | @DAZNFootball | @DAZN_ES | @DAZNFutbol | @CANMNT_Official | @VillarrealCFen
Then, of course, there’s P. David, who has been in great form again for Union St-Gilloise, after helping lead them to a surprise Belgian league title last season. Not only does he lead the Belgian league in goals this year, but he’s also added a pair of markers in the Champions League, and is generating a ridiculous 0.86 xG+xA and 0.79 goals+assists per 90 across all competitions - showing that he’s arguably one of the hottest strikers in Europe, period.
Given those numbers, it feels clear to say that those two are the #2 and #3 strikers behind J. David in Canada’s pecking order, even if it’s not yet clear which one is #2 and which one is #3 in Marsch’s eyes quite yet.
To be fair, there’s more ambiguity about where Larin, Jebbison and Bair slot in, as the latter two haven’t earned a whole chunk of opportunities for Canada, but the play of both for their clubs as certainly turned heads - Jebbison is starting to show glimpses of consistency in his attacking and all-around game for a Championship promotion candidate, while Bair has been scoring at a great rate domestically and in the UEFA Conference League for a solid Swiss side.
In the 22/23, 23/24 and 24/25 seasons, Daniel Jebbison had 5 goals
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) December 14, 2025
So far in 25/26, he has 5 goals in 15 games for Preston North End, and looks fitter and faster than ever up front
He’s making a case for a #CanMNT World Cup spot amid a busy striker poolpic.twitter.com/PqD3UaSTsn
How does CanMNT form impact the race?
At the same time, however, it’s worth noting that form for one’s club is half the consideration Marsch will make when it comes to decisions at this position - if someone manages to consistently raise their level while playing for their country, sometimes a bit of leeway can be given to their club form.
J. David earned that grace as of late, and Stephen Eustáquio is another example of a player who has remained indispensable for Canada despite struggling for minutes with his club, Porto.
Because of that, it’s interesting to see how each of these six strikers compares in terms of their play for Canada, as it can offer a bit of clarity to help decide this race.
With that in mind, here’s a look at all six have done under Marsch - as seen by this chart below, J. David leads the way in terms of minutes, followed by Larin and Oluwaseyi, and rounded off by P. David, Jebbison and Bair. 
All stats via OPTA. Minutes included stoppage time minutes accrued. Only xG data is shown as xA data was incomplete.
When looking at their numbers, though, a few things stand out.
For example, while J. David has been quite prolific under Marsch as a goalscorer, his work as a dual-attacking threat doesn’t go unnoticed, as he’s generated a solid number of assists and key passes. That’s understandable - there’s a reason why he’s been playing as more of a second striker and a #10 in Marsch’s system, a role that allows him to both score goals and generate chances - but that’s important to note when looking at the other strikers.
The reason for that is that if J. David is to play deeper, sacrificing some of his goalscoring ability for more of his playmaking, it at least makes sense to have him feeding someone who can generate goal-scoring opportunities at a high rate.
That’s where Oluwaseyi surprises - despite playing 200 fewer minutes than Larin, he has 11 more shots, 8 more touches in the box, almost triple the xG and just four fewer key passes. He hasn’t turned that into as much output as he’d have hoped - he’s underperformed his xG by a whopping 4.63 goals - but it shows that he’s getting into the right areas.
Along with the work that Oluwaseyi does off the ball, both in terms of how he stretches the field on the ball and presses hard off it, you can see why he seems to be the favourite between him and P. David in Marsch’s eyes, as he does a lot of valuable things on both sides of the ball, with consistent finishing being the only thing he’ll want to be doing more of.
Speaking of P. David, though, his numbers are quite eye-popping, as he’s already generated more xG than Larin in over 1000 fewer minutes, as he continues to rack up opportunities when he’s on the field - and he’s doing well to finish them, too, scoring three goals, which is as many as Oluwaseyi and Larin combined under Marsch.
In 201 mins with the #CanMNT, Promise David has...
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) November 19, 2025
- The 4th-most 🇨🇦goals in the Jesse Marsch era (3)
- As many goals as Tani Oluwaseyi+Cyle Larin combined in the JM era
- 1.34 goals, 1.48 xG, 5.8 shots and 6.27 touches in box per 90
More starts 🔜? pic.twitter.com/ufg16CpfuD https://t.co/MWril1dhVu
These per 90 stats from this post aren't based on total accrued regular time and stoppage time minutes - just regular time minutes. (OPTA)
At the same time, he’s not as much of a creative outlet as Larin or Oluwaseyi, and there are more concerns about his all-around play, which is perhaps why Marsch has been a bit more reluctant to give him more opportunities despite his eyewatering goalscoring form for both club and country.
When considering how each pairs with J. David, the ability of P. David to score goals and Oluwaseyi to generate shots does seem a lot more tantalizing than Larin, who has been a bit more low-event in his shot generation.
Otherwise, there isn’t much to note about Jebbison and Bair - Jebbison, in particular, has struggled to make an offensive impact in his minutes for Canada, although Bair has done well to at least generate shots when on the pitch, which could give him an edge over Jebbison if pitted against him.
When looking at all of that, however, it helps provide a bit of clarity in terms of where the striker battle lies heading into 2026. 
What to watch for in 2026?
With that in mind, there are a few things to look out for now heading into the new year.
Firstly, watch the battle between Oluwaseyi and P. David, as their numbers for both club and country seem to indicate that they’re the main two vying to play alongside J. David, as long as Marsch doesn’t switch to a 4-2-3-1.
Both have good club numbers, and both have done well to generate chances for Canada, with Oluwaseyi having more of an edge in terms of system fit, and P. David having more of an edge in terms of pure goalscoring form. Perhaps, if Oluwaseyi can start converting his chances for Canada, or if P. David can show improvement in his all-around game, that can give one of them the decisive advantage in this race.
Elsewhere, look at the battle brewing between Larin, Jebbison and Bair. In particular, if both Jebbison and Bair can leverage their strong club form into an opportunity for Canada, it could go a long way for one of them to score a goal or two off the bench in any of their pre-World Cup friendlies, giving them the sort of resume that could help push them both past Larin.
Based on those numbers, it still feels like Larin will keep that fifth spot, as his experience will still give him an edge over someone like Jebbison, who hasn’t fully impressed in his minutes for Canada, but that could quickly change with a couple of strong cameos from Jebbison or Bair, of course.
Lastly, look for Jonathan David to return to his best level, for both club and country. At the end of the day, Canada will only go as far as J. David can take them, and him finding form will only help the rest of this striker group.
Yet, that’s a good thing to consider to conclude this piece - it’s worth noting how impressive it is that Canada could be set to leave one of these six strikers off their roster, showing how much they’ve built up depth at this position.
A few years ago, all of these strikers would’ve been must-starts on past versions of this Canadian team, and now there’s a world where one of them doesn’t even make the World Cup squad, assuming Canada only brings five strikers, which they’ll expect to do no matter if Canada can bring 23 or 26 to the World Cup (with all indications being that it’ll be the latter).
That pressure to be among those five strikers should bolster the competition between this group of six, which could be what Canada needs as they try and score goals on a more regular basis, because as seen here, they’ve certainly got the weapons to do so - they just need to find the right attacking balance and mix to get the most out of them.
It won’t be easy to find that mix, as they need to figure out who starts and who comes off the bench (and don’t discount the importance of the latter with Canada’s struggles at generating goals from substitutes), but if they can find that balance… watch out.
