Diving into how Cavalry’s Tobias Warschewski is quietly putting together one of the best offensive seasons in CPL history
Cavalry’s Tobias Warschewski’s strong end to the summer continued in a big way last weekend, as he scored a brace to help power his side to a crucial 3-1 win over Atlético Ottawa in a battle between #2 and #3 in the Canadian Premier League table.
As a result, Cavalry have kept themselves in a strong position when it comes to the race for the CPL Shield, remaining just one point behind leaders Forge FC, who picked up a 2-0 win over Pacific FC later that same day to stay in first place.
Having come off a big 2-1 win over Forge just a week earlier, however, momentum is quickly building for this Cavalry side, who are undefeated in their last five games, winning four and drawing one of those matches across that span.
A big reason for that success, however, is the continued excellent play of Warschewski, who has really caught fire as of late, scoring twice and adding five assists across those five games. Now, he’s up to eight goals and seven assists in CPL play this season, which has him tied for second in the league in goals for, and first in both assists and combined goals+assists.
For context, the latter two numbers have him on a historic pace, by the way - as it stands, he’s on track to beat the CPL’s single-season assist record of nine, currently jointly held by Sean Rea (2022) and David Rodríguez (2025), as well as the CPL’s single-season combined goals and assists tally of 23 set by Sam Salter (2025).
Could we see Tobias Warschewski set a new bar for Goals + Assists in a #CPLsoccer season this year? 😎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 25, 2026
The Cavalry FC striker is averaging 0.88 goal contributions per game, to Salter's 0.82 👀 pic.twitter.com/oLPoWDVSfO
If he continues the pace he’s on, Warschewski would finish with somewhere around 13 goals and 11 assists for a total of 24 goal contributions, which would be a remarkable return for an attacker, showing why he’s the frontrunner for the CPL's POTY award heading into the last few games of the season.
Because of that, it’ll be fascinating to see if Warschewski, who has been held without a goal or an assist just five times in 17 appearances in CPL play, can continue this torrid run to end the season. It won’t be easy to do, as goals can be harder to come by at the business end of the season, but if there’s a player who could find a way to play through that and still break these records, Warschewski is as good a bet as any.
FROM ONE END TO THE OTHER! 💣
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) August 22, 2026
Nate Ingham launches it deep, and Tobias Warschewski tracks it all the way to lob home a sublime volley! Cavalry double their lead at ATCO Field!#CPLSoccer | @TSN_Sports x @onesoccer pic.twitter.com/BV47R9I2GO
It can’t be forgotten that Warschewski has scored five goals and added one assist in five CPL playoff games, five goals in 10 Canadian Championship games, and one goal in four Concacaf Champions Cup games, as he’s someone who relishes scoring in big games for this Cavalry side.
Of course, though, as is the case with any player who is on the sort of pace Warschewski is on, you can’t help but wonder if the statistics suggest his output is sustainable or not, as the flip side of any hot streak is that you can come crashing down to earth at any time.
Surprisingly, though, Warschewski’s numbers aren’t that unreasonable, all things considered, which suggests that he’ll be able to maintain a strong pace unless something drastic happens. Per OPTA, he’s got 7.68 xG and 6.05 xA, meaning that he’s got a total of 13.73 xG+xA, showing that his numbers of eight goals, seven assists and 15 goal contributions are not far off what he’d be expected to generate based on those advanced figures.
Pure composure and clinical finishing from Tobias Warschewski!
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) August 22, 2026
His second of the match gives Cavalry a two-goal cushion and pulls him level at the top of the CPL Golden Boot race!#CPLSoccer | @TSN_Sports x @onesoccer pic.twitter.com/NBwEbEKkm7
That’s worth noting, as it has to be noted that Warschewski is typically a strong finisher, one who either overperforms his xG metrics or performs just as expected. In 2024, when he scored 12 regular-season goals, he did so despite generating 10.14 xG, and in 2025, he scored eight regular-season goals on 8.24 xG (and given that he then followed that up with three goals in three playoff games, that’s a sign that perhaps his finishing wasn’t at his usual level that season).
Because of that, it’s not unreasonable to imagine that Warschewski could continue to pour in the goals if he can continue to generate xG at a similar rate to what he has so far this season, which, for context, is second in the CPL only behind Isaiah Johnston. 
Here's Warschewski's shot map from so far this season, showing his ability to take relatively dangerous shots (OPTA)
It is important to note that while Warschewski has also benefited from penalties at times, scoring three of them, he’s still generated 5.31 non-penalty xG, which is fourth in the league. When looking at that, you could suggest that he hasn’t actually been as dangerous in open play as one would’ve thought at first glance.
At the same time, that stat is less relevant when looking at the question of whether or not Warschewski can break the goal contribution record, as penalty goals count the same as others, so if anything, it can only help Warschewski that he takes penalties and typically has a good record at them (missing just twice in 12 attempts since the start of 2024) when it comes to this discussion.
Really, the only thing to remember with penalties is that they’re not a reliable source of offence, as teams can go large stretches without earning those attempts. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how good you are at penalties if you don’t take any, which can happen to teams.
Yet, that’s the big thing that might slow down Warschewski’s quest, and that’s luck. Penalties aren’t just one example where the ebbs and flows of a season could potentially help or hurt his quest to earn goal contributions - you just have to look at assists as another metric that can be quite volatile.
Just last year, David Rodríguez looked on track to smash the single-season assist record, and only ended up tying it after a quiet second half in that regard, and earlier this season, Miguel Arilla was on track to beat the record, but hasn't recorded an assist since hitting five on the season. The reality with assists is that it can be a stat that relies on luck, as you need to rely on your teammates to finish the chances you create for them.
Therefore, Warschewski will need some luck on his side to have a shot at breaking either of the records he’s chasing, no matter how well he performs over the next stretch.
At the same time, it feels like if there’s a player who could give himself a chance at these records and overcome the volatility of luck, Warschewski is as good a bet as any.
GOAL🐎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 15, 2026
Cavalry have finally found their equalizer against Forge, as Daan Klomp finishes at the back post after yet another perfect cross from Tobias Warschewski
🔴Watch #CPLSoccer on OneSoccer and TSN pic.twitter.com/SYZ1unUsOp
As mentioned above, he’s generating the sort of quality chances one needs to be dangerous offensively, and a big reason for that is his ability to generate quality attacking volume - he is tied for the league lead in shots with 56, and is second in chances created with 38 (and he’s created a whopping 18 big chances, with no one else in the CPL creating more than seven, showing that he’s creating quality opportunities for his teammates, too). 
Here's Warschewski's touch map from this season, showing his ability to get on the ball in dangerous areas in the final third (OPTA)
There’s a reason why the adage says that you have to be good to be lucky, and a big reason for Warschewski’s offensive success is that he is creating more chances for himself and his teammates than anyone else in the CPL. Sometimes, attackers will either create a good volume of chances but not enough quality, or vice versa, but not Warschewski, and that’s reflected in the success he’s had this season.
Because of that, one thing’s for sure when looking at these numbers, and it’s that Warschewski will remain the frontrunner for the CPL’s POTY award for the rest of the season if he continues to generate anything close to these numbers over the last stretch of the season - and if he remains anywhere close to that, he’ll also have a chance to make CPL history by potentially breaking the assist and/or the goal contribution record.
GOAL🐎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 2, 2026
Cavalry have an early lead over Inter Toronto at Spruce Meadows, as Adam Pearlman slots home into an empty net after a nice pass from Tobias Warschewski pic.twitter.com/IVNNhTUBOQ
And given Cavalry’s quest to win the CPL Shield, there’s no reason why he should slow down anytime soon, which could only further help him in this record-chasing quest. As long as Cavalry has something to play for, Warschewski will continue to be the straw that stirs the drink for them offensively, and expectedly so, as he continues to show why he’s one of the best players in the CPL.
